Do Republicans Have More to Gain from EVs?
Summary
New data indicate that areas1In this memo, “Republican-majority areas” and “Democratic-majority areas” refer to Census block groups where Donald Trump and Joe Biden won a majority of the vote, respectively, in the 2020 presidential election. with higher concentrations of Republican voters have greater potential to save money on vehicle fuel costs than Democratic-majority ones from switching to EVs. This finding could have significant implications for political messaging around EVs and for EV adoption strategies.
Key Finding: Greater Savings in Republican-Majority Areas
In areas where Donald Trump won a majority in 2020, the average potential annual fuel savings from switching to an EV is $1,383, compared to $1,146 in Biden-majority areas.
In strongly Republican areas (>70% Trump voters), potential savings increased to $1,564 annually. The disparity in EV cost savings is greater in areas where over 70% of voters backed Trump. In these very Republican areas, potential annual fuel savings jump to an impressive $1,564. Meanwhile, in solidly Democratic areas, where Biden secured more than 70% of the vote, the average savings are just $1,105 per year.
Republican voters, particularly those in more rural or suburban areas, are spending more on gasoline and therefore have more to gain from the efficiency and lower operating costs of EVs. When factoring in lower EV maintenance costs, average annual savings could reach $1,796 in Republican-majority areas and $2,050 in strongly Republican areas.
Key Finding: Republican-held Congressional Districts Have High Potential for EV Savings
The following are the top ten Republican-held congressional districts by potential annual fuel savings.
Top 10 Republican-held Congressional Districts for Average EV Fuel Savings
| Congressional Representative | District | State | Average Annual Potential Fuel Savings for Switching to an EV |
| Mary E. Miller | 15 | Illinois | $2,065 |
| Mike Bost | 12 | Illinois | $2,033 |
| Darrell Issa | 48 | California | $2,025 |
| Dan Newhouse | 4 | Washington | $1,940 |
| Darin LaHood | 16 | Illinois | $1,935 |
| John S. Duarte | 13 | California | $1,885 |
| Ken Calvert | 41 | California | $1,856 |
| John R. Moolenaar | 2 | Michigan | $1,855 |
| Tom McClintock | 5 | California | $1,847 |
| Mike Garcia | 27 | California | $1,813 |
Why This Matters
For many Republican voters, economic issues take precedence over environmental concerns. The potential to save more than $100 a month on fuel costs could be a persuasive argument for switching to electric vehicles for people in Republican-majority communities. This is especially true for households in rural and suburban areas, where driving distances are longer, and fuel costs can be a significant portion of the household budget. According to the EV Politics Project, 56% of Republicans are open to EVs and 54% of Republicans believe the best reason to switch to an EV is never paying for gas.
Messaging around the money-saving benefits of EVs could mitigate voter antipathy towards EVs, and possibly reward candidates who advance policies to make EV ownership easier.
Data Sources and Methodology
Annual gasoline consumption is calculated by multiplying annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) — based on Replica’s model of US car trips — by the vehicle’s predicted gallons per mile (Coltura). Annual potential electricity consumption in an electric vehicle is calculated by multiplying annual VMT by region-weighted kilowatt hours per mile (kWh/mi).
Gasoline expenditure is calculated by multiplying annual gasoline consumption by the state average gasoline price (Gasbuddy). The calculation of electricity expenditure assumes that 80% of charging is done at home at the state average residential utility rate (EIA), while 20% is done in public at a cost of $0.29 per kWh, in line with Argonne National Laboratory. Annual potential fuel savings from switching to an EV are calculated by subtracting annual potential electricity expenditures from annual gasoline expenditures. Maintenance savings are assumed to be 3 cents per mile per Consumer Reports.
Voting data with census block group resolution comes from the Harvard Dataverse. In this memo, “Republican areas” and “Democratic areas” refer to Census block groups where Donald Trump and Joe Biden won a majority of the vote, respectively, in the 2020 presidential election.
Endnote
- In this memo, “Republican-majority areas” and “Democratic-majority areas” refer to Census block groups where Donald Trump and Joe Biden won a majority of the vote, respectively, in the 2020 presidential election.