Methodology
Driving the Vote
US counties were filtered to “swing” counties in eight historic swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) where the difference between 2020 Trump and Biden vote shares were less than 5%. These counties were further filtered to exclude counties with fewer than 40 census block groups to reduce bias from small sample size, thereby narrowing the analysis to 24 swing counties. This approach was taken in order to create a rough “all else equal” comparison of block groups within counties; if counties are relatively homogeneous, comparing the gasoline consumption of block groups within the counties allows us to measure the effect of gasoline consumption alone. Controlling for the confounding variables race, income, and population density allowed us to further isolate gasoline consumption.
OLS regression with robust standard errors was run on the block groups within these counties, with average annual gasoline consumption (i.e. gasoline consumption per driver) as the independent variable and 2020 Democrat vote share as the dependent variable. Race, income, and population density were included as control variables. An OLS regression along the same lines was also run for all US census block groups and all census block groups in “swing” counties (according to the same 5% criteria), which also included gas price as a control variable.
Gasoline consumption data with block group level resolution comes from Coltura’s Gasoline Consumption Data Map. Voting data with block group resolution comes from the Harvard Dataverse.
OLS Regression Results:
Maricopa County, Arizona
2020 Vote Share: 50.3% Biden, 48.1% Trump
Population: 4,367,186
Sample size: 2,475 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.594
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.593
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 629.5
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 0.00
Time: 18:42:03 Log-Likelihood: -8905.6
No. Observations: 2475 AIC: 1.783e+04
Df Residuals: 2467 BIC: 1.787e+04
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 54.0546 0.179 302.551 0.000 53.704 54.405
numc_nl_white_population_perc -9.1547 1.264 -7.240 0.000 -11.633 -6.676
numc_nl_black_population_perc 0.7643 0.420 1.821 0.069 -0.058 1.587
numc_nl_asian_population_perc -0.2694 0.327 -0.825 0.410 -0.910 0.371
numc_nl_latino_population_perc -0.0735 1.178 -0.062 0.950 -2.383 2.236
numc_population_density 0.5838 0.221 2.637 0.008 0.150 1.018
numd_median_household_income -0.1632 0.233 -0.701 0.483 -0.619 0.293
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -3.5870 0.384 -9.337 0.000 -4.340 -2.834
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 162.525 Durbin-Watson: 1.063
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 299.206
Skew: 0.474 Prob(JB): 1.07e-65
Kurtosis: 4.416 Cond. No. 10.3
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Eaton County, Michigan
2020 Vote Share: 48.7% Biden, 49.4% Trump
Population: 108,972
Sample size: 80 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.855
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.841
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 63.03
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 3.58e-28
Time: 18:42:03 Log-Likelihood: -247.73
No. Observations: 80 AIC: 511.5
Df Residuals: 72 BIC: 530.5
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 49.3919 0.741 66.700 0.000 47.941 50.843
numc_nl_white_population_perc 5.7098 3.867 1.477 0.140 -1.870 13.289
numc_nl_black_population_perc 7.9544 2.916 2.728 0.006 2.240 13.669
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 2.4238 2.246 1.079 0.281 -1.978 6.826
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 1.8670 1.679 1.112 0.266 -1.424 5.158
numc_population_density 1.4763 2.598 0.568 0.570 -3.617 6.569
numd_median_household_income 0.4346 0.712 0.610 0.542 -0.961 1.830
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -9.2648 0.977 -9.480 0.000 -11.180 -7.349
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 0.128 Durbin-Watson: 2.189
Prob(Omnibus): 0.938 Jarque-Bera (JB): 0.011
Skew: -0.029 Prob(JB): 0.994
Kurtosis: 2.994 Cond. No. 12.7
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Grand Traverse County, Michigan
2020 Vote Share: 47.6% Biden, 50.6% Trump
Population: 94,562
Sample size: 56 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.805
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.777
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 23.36
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 1.91e-13
Time: 18:42:03 Log-Likelihood: -170.88
No. Observations: 56 AIC: 357.8
Df Residuals: 48 BIC: 374.0
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 49.3627 0.796 61.976 0.000 47.802 50.924
numc_nl_white_population_perc 0.5826 1.631 0.357 0.721 -2.614 3.779
numc_nl_black_population_perc 1.9608 0.907 2.161 0.031 0.182 3.739
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 0.8987 0.900 0.999 0.318 -0.864 2.662
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 1.0071 1.193 0.844 0.399 -1.332 3.346
numc_population_density 5.9282 1.122 5.284 0.000 3.729 8.127
numd_median_household_income 2.7194 0.882 3.083 0.002 0.990 4.448
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -5.2293 1.263 -4.142 0.000 -7.704 -2.755
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 0.407 Durbin-Watson: 1.982
Prob(Omnibus): 0.816 Jarque-Bera (JB): 0.053
Skew: 0.031 Prob(JB): 0.974
Kurtosis: 3.137 Cond. No. 4.04
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Isabella County, Michigan
2020 Vote Share: 47.8% Biden, 50.4% Trump
Population: 65,623
Sample size: 43 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.860
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.832
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 37.16
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 2.27e-14
Time: 18:42:03 Log-Likelihood: -133.08
No. Observations: 43 AIC: 282.2
Df Residuals: 35 BIC: 296.2
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 51.1112 0.935 54.671 0.000 49.279 52.944
numc_nl_white_population_perc 0.7989 1.126 0.710 0.478 -1.408 3.005
numc_nl_black_population_perc 2.2597 0.928 2.435 0.015 0.441 4.079
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 1.7978 1.014 1.772 0.076 -0.190 3.786
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 1.0892 1.104 0.987 0.324 -1.074 3.252
numc_population_density 1.4830 0.731 2.028 0.043 0.050 2.916
numd_median_household_income -2.5583 0.889 -2.876 0.004 -4.302 -0.815
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -9.3460 1.401 -6.669 0.000 -12.093 -6.599
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 0.769 Durbin-Watson: 1.691
Prob(Omnibus): 0.681 Jarque-Bera (JB): 0.764
Skew: 0.063 Prob(JB): 0.683
Kurtosis: 2.359 Cond. No. 3.31
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Muskegon County, Michigan
2020 Vote Share: 49.4% Biden, 48.8% Trump
Population: 175,633
Sample size: 136 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.862
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.854
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 123.2
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 1.03e-53
Time: 18:42:03 Log-Likelihood: -454.61
No. Observations: 136 AIC: 925.2
Df Residuals: 128 BIC: 948.5
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 56.7102 0.620 91.432 0.000 55.495 57.926
numc_nl_white_population_perc -5.6955 4.857 -1.173 0.241 -15.216 3.825
numc_nl_black_population_perc 4.8880 4.444 1.100 0.271 -3.822 13.598
numc_nl_asian_population_perc -1.3639 0.640 -2.130 0.033 -2.619 -0.109
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 0.6887 1.501 0.459 0.646 -2.253 3.631
numc_population_density 2.7820 0.757 3.675 0.000 1.298 4.266
numd_median_household_income -0.3976 0.658 -0.604 0.546 -1.687 0.892
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -6.0609 0.771 -7.864 0.000 -7.572 -4.550
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 5.948 Durbin-Watson: 1.493
Prob(Omnibus): 0.051 Jarque-Bera (JB): 5.536
Skew: 0.478 Prob(JB): 0.0628
Kurtosis: 3.248 Cond. No. 16.0
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Saginaw County, Michigan
2020 Vote Share: 49.4% Biden, 49.1% Trump
Population: 190,540
Sample size: 173 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.893
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.889
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 297.0
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 4.92e-90
Time: 18:42:03 Log-Likelihood: -582.36
No. Observations: 173 AIC: 1181.
Df Residuals: 165 BIC: 1206.
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 58.1982 0.557 104.550 0.000 57.107 59.289
numc_nl_white_population_perc -3.9517 6.094 -0.648 0.517 -15.896 7.992
numc_nl_black_population_perc 10.1351 5.652 1.793 0.073 -0.942 21.212
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 0.0563 0.770 0.073 0.942 -1.452 1.565
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 1.7298 2.071 0.835 0.404 -2.329 5.789
numc_population_density -0.2033 0.789 -0.258 0.797 -1.750 1.343
numd_median_household_income -3.8470 0.732 -5.259 0.000 -5.281 -2.413
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -5.3752 0.666 -8.074 0.000 -6.680 -4.070
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 14.508 Durbin-Watson: 1.946
Prob(Omnibus): 0.001 Jarque-Bera (JB): 18.557
Skew: 0.549 Prob(JB): 9.34e-05
Kurtosis: 4.169 Cond. No. 24.6
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Anoka County, Minnesota
2020 Vote Share: 47.8% Biden, 49.7% Trump
Population: 360,773
Sample size: 229 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.729
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.720
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 102.1
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 1.14e-65
Time: 18:42:03 Log-Likelihood: -732.77
No. Observations: 229 AIC: 1482.
Df Residuals: 221 BIC: 1509.
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 49.0463 0.408 120.267 0.000 48.247 49.846
numc_nl_white_population_perc -3.2900 1.871 -1.759 0.079 -6.957 0.377
numc_nl_black_population_perc 0.2241 1.260 0.178 0.859 -2.245 2.693
numc_nl_asian_population_perc -0.8232 0.735 -1.120 0.263 -2.264 0.617
numc_nl_latino_population_perc -1.4783 1.147 -1.288 0.198 -3.727 0.771
numc_population_density 4.1444 0.685 6.051 0.000 2.802 5.487
numd_median_household_income -0.9903 0.521 -1.902 0.057 -2.011 0.030
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -4.2974 0.474 -9.062 0.000 -5.227 -3.368
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 23.662 Durbin-Watson: 1.503
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 29.035
Skew: 0.738 Prob(JB): 4.96e-07
Kurtosis: 3.930 Cond. No. 11.1
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Blue Earth County, Minnesota
2020 Vote Share: 50.8% Biden, 46.4% Trump
Population: 68,575
Sample size: 51 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.880
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.861
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 68.32
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 3.22e-21
Time: 18:42:03 Log-Likelihood: -141.34
No. Observations: 51 AIC: 298.7
Df Residuals: 43 BIC: 314.1
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 50.9380 0.633 80.499 0.000 49.698 52.178
numc_nl_white_population_perc 9.9864 3.044 3.281 0.001 4.021 15.952
numc_nl_black_population_perc 4.8937 2.080 2.353 0.019 0.817 8.971
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 2.6760 1.133 2.363 0.018 0.456 4.896
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 4.2929 1.330 3.228 0.001 1.687 6.899
numc_population_density 1.2225 1.234 0.991 0.322 -1.196 3.641
numd_median_household_income -1.6226 0.725 -2.238 0.025 -3.044 -0.201
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -9.6758 0.802 -12.062 0.000 -11.248 -8.104
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 0.118 Durbin-Watson: 1.616
Prob(Omnibus): 0.943 Jarque-Bera (JB): 0.315
Skew: 0.055 Prob(JB): 0.854
Kurtosis: 2.631 Cond. No. 13.3
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Carver County, Minnesota
2020 Vote Share: 46.4% Biden, 51.2% Trump
Population: 105,694
Sample size: 55 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.810
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.782
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 38.79
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 1.94e-17
Time: 18:42:03 Log-Likelihood: -157.34
No. Observations: 55 AIC: 330.7
Df Residuals: 47 BIC: 346.7
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 47.1984 0.678 69.662 0.000 45.870 48.526
numc_nl_white_population_perc 1.6994 2.985 0.569 0.569 -4.152 7.551
numc_nl_black_population_perc -0.0100 1.125 -0.009 0.993 -2.215 2.195
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 2.0548 2.348 0.875 0.381 -2.547 6.656
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 1.5162 1.797 0.844 0.399 -2.005 5.037
numc_population_density 0.3163 0.663 0.477 0.634 -0.984 1.617
numd_median_household_income 0.9503 0.825 1.152 0.249 -0.666 2.567
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -8.1335 0.688 -11.826 0.000 -9.482 -6.786
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 4.288 Durbin-Watson: 1.744
Prob(Omnibus): 0.117 Jarque-Bera (JB): 3.265
Skew: -0.472 Prob(JB): 0.195
Kurtosis: 3.731 Cond. No. 10.5
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Clay County, Minnesota
2020 Vote Share: 50.7% Biden, 46.7% Trump
Population: 64,975
Sample size: 44 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.814
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.778
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 17.33
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 8.36e-10
Time: 18:42:03 Log-Likelihood: -129.97
No. Observations: 44 AIC: 275.9
Df Residuals: 36 BIC: 290.2
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 52.1355 1.078 48.369 0.000 50.023 54.248
numc_nl_white_population_perc -1.9113 6.780 -0.282 0.778 -15.200 11.378
numc_nl_black_population_perc -1.2406 7.805 -0.159 0.874 -16.539 14.057
numc_nl_asian_population_perc -0.8600 0.841 -1.022 0.307 -2.509 0.789
numc_nl_latino_population_perc -0.8394 2.014 -0.417 0.677 -4.788 3.109
numc_population_density 4.0026 2.109 1.898 0.058 -0.130 8.135
numd_median_household_income -0.3123 1.500 -0.208 0.835 -3.252 2.627
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -6.4671 1.674 -3.864 0.000 -9.748 -3.187
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 1.777 Durbin-Watson: 1.405
Prob(Omnibus): 0.411 Jarque-Bera (JB): 1.699
Skew: -0.404 Prob(JB): 0.428
Kurtosis: 2.475 Cond. No. 7.17
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Rice County, Minnesota
2020 Vote Share: 48.8% Biden, 48.9% Trump
Population: 66,795
Sample size: 42 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.610
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.529
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 10.78
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 4.48e-07
Time: 18:42:04 Log-Likelihood: -157.13
No. Observations: 42 AIC: 330.3
Df Residuals: 34 BIC: 344.2
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 48.7764 2.138 22.811 0.000 44.586 52.967
numc_nl_white_population_perc -13.6325 21.705 -0.628 0.530 -56.173 28.908
numc_nl_black_population_perc -11.5941 9.411 -1.232 0.218 -30.039 6.850
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 4.8964 4.232 1.157 0.247 -3.399 13.192
numc_nl_latino_population_perc -4.3597 14.111 -0.309 0.757 -32.017 23.297
numc_population_density 3.4513 3.507 0.984 0.325 -3.423 10.325
numd_median_household_income 3.2259 4.133 0.781 0.435 -4.875 11.326
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -7.0318 3.382 -2.079 0.038 -13.660 -0.404
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 3.656 Durbin-Watson: 2.122
Prob(Omnibus): 0.161 Jarque-Bera (JB): 2.769
Skew: 0.621 Prob(JB): 0.250
Kurtosis: 3.202 Cond. No. 11.5
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Washoe County, Nevada
2020 Vote Share: 50.8% Biden, 46.3% Trump
Population: 479,758
Sample size: 305 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.557
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.547
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 44.17
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 1.52e-42
Time: 18:42:04 Log-Likelihood: -1023.3
No. Observations: 305 AIC: 2063.
Df Residuals: 297 BIC: 2092.
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 54.0960 0.419 129.043 0.000 53.274 54.918
numc_nl_white_population_perc -5.0321 3.155 -1.595 0.111 -11.216 1.151
numc_nl_black_population_perc -0.7578 0.890 -0.851 0.394 -2.502 0.987
numc_nl_asian_population_perc -0.9530 0.950 -1.003 0.316 -2.815 0.909
numc_nl_latino_population_perc -3.5926 2.940 -1.222 0.222 -9.355 2.170
numc_population_density 2.0196 0.475 4.252 0.000 1.089 2.950
numd_median_household_income -1.9295 0.670 -2.880 0.004 -3.243 -0.616
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -4.7184 1.045 -4.516 0.000 -6.766 -2.671
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 13.053 Durbin-Watson: 1.757
Prob(Omnibus): 0.001 Jarque-Bera (JB): 14.071
Skew: 0.441 Prob(JB): 0.000880
Kurtosis: 3.575 Cond. No. 7.27
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Nash County, North Carolina
2020 Vote Share: 49.6% Biden, 49.4% Trump
Population: 94,628
Sample size: 63 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.709
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.672
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 29.04
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 2.64e-16
Time: 18:42:04 Log-Likelihood: -232.20
No. Observations: 63 AIC: 480.4
Df Residuals: 55 BIC: 497.5
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 53.9243 1.394 38.675 0.000 51.192 56.657
numc_nl_white_population_perc -3.0838 14.910 -0.207 0.836 -32.307 26.140
numc_nl_black_population_perc 6.7861 15.432 0.440 0.660 -23.461 37.033
numc_nl_asian_population_perc -0.1011 1.878 -0.054 0.957 -3.782 3.580
numc_nl_latino_population_perc -2.4241 5.447 -0.445 0.656 -13.100 8.252
numc_population_density 4.4685 1.822 2.452 0.014 0.897 8.040
numd_median_household_income 0.4489 2.487 0.181 0.857 -4.426 5.324
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -3.1132 2.012 -1.547 0.122 -7.057 0.831
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 1.869 Durbin-Watson: 2.347
Prob(Omnibus): 0.393 Jarque-Bera (JB): 1.696
Skew: -0.395 Prob(JB): 0.428
Kurtosis: 2.848 Cond. No. 23.1
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
New Hanover County, North Carolina
2020 Vote Share: 50.2% Biden, 48.0% Trump
Population: 225,175
Sample size: 120 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.653
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.632
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 23.84
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 1.42e-19
Time: 18:42:04 Log-Likelihood: -428.13
No. Observations: 120 AIC: 872.3
Df Residuals: 112 BIC: 894.6
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 53.9034 0.843 63.909 0.000 52.250 55.557
numc_nl_white_population_perc 0.9100 6.454 0.141 0.888 -11.740 13.560
numc_nl_black_population_perc 8.5348 6.021 1.418 0.156 -3.266 20.336
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 0.4767 1.071 0.445 0.656 -1.622 2.576
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 1.9188 2.599 0.738 0.460 -3.176 7.014
numc_population_density 3.8502 1.053 3.656 0.000 1.786 5.914
numd_median_household_income -0.7362 0.954 -0.772 0.440 -2.605 1.133
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -2.8560 1.112 -2.568 0.010 -5.036 -0.676
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 21.011 Durbin-Watson: 1.815
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 26.140
Skew: 0.997 Prob(JB): 2.11e-06
Kurtosis: 4.120 Cond. No. 15.3
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Wilson County, North Carolina
2020 Vote Share: 51.0% Biden, 48.1% Trump
Population: 78,844
Sample size: 47 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.796
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.760
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 24.60
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 1.91e-12
Time: 18:42:04 Log-Likelihood: -177.12
No. Observations: 47 AIC: 370.2
Df Residuals: 39 BIC: 385.0
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 61.9936 1.860 33.335 0.000 58.349 65.639
numc_nl_white_population_perc 8.1766 23.017 0.355 0.722 -36.935 53.288
numc_nl_black_population_perc 19.5565 21.125 0.926 0.355 -21.848 60.961
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 0.1541 3.504 0.044 0.965 -6.713 7.021
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 7.1186 10.416 0.683 0.494 -13.296 27.534
numc_population_density -1.5792 3.072 -0.514 0.607 -7.601 4.443
numd_median_household_income -3.7125 2.751 -1.349 0.177 -9.105 1.680
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -9.4734 3.440 -2.754 0.006 -16.215 -2.732
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 1.949 Durbin-Watson: 2.282
Prob(Omnibus): 0.377 Jarque-Bera (JB): 1.408
Skew: -0.199 Prob(JB): 0.495
Kurtosis: 2.251 Cond. No. 25.1
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Bucks County, Pennsylvania
2020 Vote Share: 51.7% Biden, 47.3% Trump
Population: 643,872
Sample size: 376 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.200
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.185
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 9.735
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 3.90e-11
Time: 18:42:04 Log-Likelihood: -1235.3
No. Observations: 376 AIC: 2487.
Df Residuals: 368 BIC: 2518.
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 51.7178 0.343 150.982 0.000 51.046 52.389
numc_nl_white_population_perc -0.6789 1.492 -0.455 0.649 -3.604 2.246
numc_nl_black_population_perc 1.6251 0.900 1.806 0.071 -0.139 3.389
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 0.1971 0.680 0.290 0.772 -1.136 1.530
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 1.1641 0.855 1.362 0.173 -0.511 2.840
numc_population_density 0.9025 0.619 1.459 0.145 -0.310 2.115
numd_median_household_income 1.9621 0.416 4.713 0.000 1.146 2.778
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -0.8189 0.374 -2.189 0.029 -1.552 -0.086
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 14.396 Durbin-Watson: 1.463
Prob(Omnibus): 0.001 Jarque-Bera (JB): 14.957
Skew: 0.471 Prob(JB): 0.000565
Kurtosis: 3.263 Cond. No. 7.38
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Centre County, Pennsylvania
2020 Vote Share: 51.7% Biden, 46.9% Trump
Population: 158,879
Sample size: 99 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.817
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.803
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 54.27
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 9.04e-30
Time: 18:42:04 Log-Likelihood: -353.37
No. Observations: 99 AIC: 722.7
Df Residuals: 91 BIC: 743.5
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 52.2491 0.941 55.519 0.000 50.405 54.094
numc_nl_white_population_perc -4.7574 5.603 -0.849 0.396 -15.740 6.225
numc_nl_black_population_perc -2.5187 2.610 -0.965 0.334 -7.634 2.596
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 0.1714 4.038 0.042 0.966 -7.744 8.086
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 2.4404 1.659 1.471 0.141 -0.811 5.692
numc_population_density 3.5806 1.314 2.725 0.006 1.005 6.156
numd_median_household_income 3.0087 1.106 2.721 0.007 0.841 5.176
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -12.2308 1.539 -7.945 0.000 -15.248 -9.213
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 1.728 Durbin-Watson: 1.651
Prob(Omnibus): 0.421 Jarque-Bera (JB): 1.525
Skew: 0.304 Prob(JB): 0.466
Kurtosis: 2.968 Cond. No. 11.2
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Erie County, Pennsylvania
2020 Vote Share: 49.8% Biden, 48.8% Trump
Population: 271,903
Sample size: 231 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.769
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.762
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 107.8
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 5.76e-68
Time: 18:42:04 Log-Likelihood: -757.78
No. Observations: 231 AIC: 1532.
Df Residuals: 223 BIC: 1559.
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 52.0987 0.441 118.243 0.000 51.235 52.962
numc_nl_white_population_perc -0.6588 1.824 -0.361 0.718 -4.234 2.916
numc_nl_black_population_perc 3.2198 1.416 2.274 0.023 0.444 5.995
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 0.3356 0.537 0.625 0.532 -0.717 1.388
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 0.1624 0.846 0.192 0.848 -1.495 1.820
numc_population_density 3.0099 0.646 4.657 0.000 1.743 4.277
numd_median_household_income -0.8904 0.590 -1.510 0.131 -2.046 0.265
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -6.5452 0.647 -10.122 0.000 -7.813 -5.278
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 15.871 Durbin-Watson: 1.881
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 25.742
Skew: 0.407 Prob(JB): 2.57e-06
Kurtosis: 4.418 Cond. No. 8.79
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Northampton County, Pennsylvania
2020 Vote Share: 49.8% Biden, 49.0% Trump
Population: 311,359
Sample size: 199 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.718
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.707
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 96.68
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 2.52e-59
Time: 18:42:04 Log-Likelihood: -674.84
No. Observations: 199 AIC: 1366.
Df Residuals: 191 BIC: 1392.
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 52.4031 0.534 98.128 0.000 51.356 53.450
numc_nl_white_population_perc -2.0801 3.679 -0.565 0.572 -9.291 5.131
numc_nl_black_population_perc 3.4866 1.698 2.053 0.040 0.159 6.814
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 1.2965 0.930 1.394 0.163 -0.527 3.120
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 1.2233 2.856 0.428 0.668 -4.374 6.820
numc_population_density 3.9346 0.898 4.383 0.000 2.175 5.694
numd_median_household_income 0.0573 0.769 0.074 0.941 -1.450 1.564
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -4.5452 0.578 -7.863 0.000 -5.678 -3.412
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 8.502 Durbin-Watson: 1.656
Prob(Omnibus): 0.014 Jarque-Bera (JB): 8.478
Skew: 0.437 Prob(JB): 0.0144
Kurtosis: 3.509 Cond. No. 13.7
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Columbia County, Wisconsin
2020 Vote Share: 48.5% Biden, 50.0% Trump
Population: 58,219
Sample size: 48 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.543
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.463
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 2.542
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 0.0291
Time: 18:42:04 Log-Likelihood: -145.62
No. Observations: 48 AIC: 307.2
Df Residuals: 40 BIC: 322.2
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 48.7413 0.947 51.452 0.000 46.885 50.598
numc_nl_white_population_perc -3.4112 2.538 -1.344 0.179 -8.386 1.564
numc_nl_black_population_perc -0.4832 1.027 -0.470 0.638 -2.497 1.531
numc_nl_asian_population_perc -0.5082 0.732 -0.694 0.488 -1.944 0.927
numc_nl_latino_population_perc -6.9271 4.252 -1.629 0.103 -15.261 1.407
numc_population_density 5.1940 4.490 1.157 0.247 -3.606 13.994
numd_median_household_income 1.4672 1.709 0.858 0.391 -1.882 4.817
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -4.0211 1.395 -2.882 0.004 -6.756 -1.286
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 12.296 Durbin-Watson: 2.018
Prob(Omnibus): 0.002 Jarque-Bera (JB): 12.785
Skew: -1.040 Prob(JB): 0.00167
Kurtosis: 4.437 Cond. No. 10.0
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Kenosha County, Wisconsin
2020 Vote Share: 47.5% Biden, 50.7% Trump
Population: 168,743
Sample size: 127 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.819
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.808
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 98.08
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 2.28e-46
Time: 18:42:04 Log-Likelihood: -378.48
No. Observations: 127 AIC: 773.0
Df Residuals: 119 BIC: 795.7
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 51.2185 0.452 113.190 0.000 50.332 52.105
numc_nl_white_population_perc -1.9780 1.992 -0.993 0.321 -5.883 1.927
numc_nl_black_population_perc 1.0503 1.300 0.808 0.419 -1.499 3.599
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 0.9466 0.551 1.717 0.086 -0.134 2.027
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 0.3384 1.354 0.250 0.803 -2.316 2.993
numc_population_density 2.7590 0.733 3.762 0.000 1.322 4.196
numd_median_household_income -1.2673 0.566 -2.238 0.025 -2.377 -0.158
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -5.2509 0.593 -8.849 0.000 -6.414 -4.088
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 2.111 Durbin-Watson: 2.179
Prob(Omnibus): 0.348 Jarque-Bera (JB): 1.911
Skew: 0.300 Prob(JB): 0.385
Kurtosis: 2.991 Cond. No. 10.7
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Portage County, Wisconsin
2020 Vote Share: 50.3% Biden, 47.5% Trump
Population: 70,378
Sample size: 53 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.858
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.835
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 33.84
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 6.76e-16
Time: 18:42:04 Log-Likelihood: -151.79
No. Observations: 53 AIC: 319.6
Df Residuals: 45 BIC: 335.3
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 50.0228 0.682 73.353 0.000 48.686 51.359
numc_nl_white_population_perc 0.4346 2.807 0.155 0.877 -5.067 5.936
numc_nl_black_population_perc 0.0522 1.224 0.043 0.966 -2.348 2.452
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 1.2548 1.995 0.629 0.529 -2.655 5.165
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 0.3344 1.494 0.224 0.823 -2.594 3.263
numc_population_density 3.3583 0.931 3.608 0.000 1.534 5.182
numd_median_household_income -3.2985 0.870 -3.790 0.000 -5.004 -1.592
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -5.6921 1.007 -5.653 0.000 -7.666 -3.718
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 1.102 Durbin-Watson: 1.487
Prob(Omnibus): 0.577 Jarque-Bera (JB): 0.439
Skew: 0.117 Prob(JB): 0.803
Kurtosis: 3.380 Cond. No. 8.72
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Racine County, Wisconsin
2020 Vote Share: 47.1% Biden, 51.2% Trump
Population: 197,379
Sample size: 167 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.833
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.826
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 147.1
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 4.35e-66
Time: 18:42:04 Log-Likelihood: -557.41
No. Observations: 167 AIC: 1131.
Df Residuals: 159 BIC: 1156.
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 53.7315 0.558 96.339 0.000 52.638 54.825
numc_nl_white_population_perc -3.1216 4.725 -0.661 0.509 -12.383 6.140
numc_nl_black_population_perc 2.8798 3.013 0.956 0.339 -3.025 8.784
numc_nl_asian_population_perc -0.5767 0.606 -0.951 0.342 -1.765 0.612
numc_nl_latino_population_perc 0.7459 2.525 0.295 0.768 -4.203 5.695
numc_population_density 2.1590 0.730 2.957 0.003 0.728 3.590
numd_median_household_income -2.5529 1.021 -2.501 0.012 -4.554 -0.552
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -7.0218 0.667 -10.529 0.000 -8.329 -5.715
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 4.369 Durbin-Watson: 1.978
Prob(Omnibus): 0.113 Jarque-Bera (JB): 5.757
Skew: 0.008 Prob(JB): 0.0562
Kurtosis: 3.909 Cond. No. 17.6
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
Winnebago County, Wisconsin
2020 Vote Share: 46.9% Biden, 50.8% Trump
Population: 171,304
Sample size: 131 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.762
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.749
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 73.03
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 8.75e-41
Time: 18:42:04 Log-Likelihood: -357.90
No. Observations: 131 AIC: 731.8
Df Residuals: 123 BIC: 754.8
Df Model: 7
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 49.0015 0.345 142.178 0.000 48.326 49.677
numc_nl_white_population_perc -0.0778 0.783 -0.099 0.921 -1.612 1.457
numc_nl_black_population_perc 0.1781 0.441 0.404 0.686 -0.686 1.042
numc_nl_asian_population_perc 0.2501 0.577 0.433 0.665 -0.881 1.382
numc_nl_latino_population_perc -0.3755 0.597 -0.629 0.529 -1.545 0.794
numc_population_density 2.5199 0.472 5.343 0.000 1.596 3.444
numd_median_household_income -0.1904 0.413 -0.461 0.645 -0.999 0.619
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -4.9373 0.360 -13.709 0.000 -5.643 -4.231
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 3.318 Durbin-Watson: 1.630
Prob(Omnibus): 0.190 Jarque-Bera (JB): 2.787
Skew: -0.331 Prob(JB): 0.248
Kurtosis: 3.271 Cond. No. 5.32
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
All Swing Block Groups
Sample size: 19,018 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.484
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.484
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 2234.
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 0.00
Time: 18:43:44 Log-Likelihood: -71840.
No. Observations: 19018 AIC: 1.437e+05
Df Residuals: 19009 BIC: 1.438e+05
Df Model: 8
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 52.3681 0.077 682.465 0.000 52.218 52.518
numc_nl_white_population_perc -4.9011 0.615 -7.972 0.000 -6.106 -3.696
numc_nl_black_population_perc 4.2490 0.436 9.743 0.000 3.394 5.104
numc_nl_asian_population_perc -0.4656 0.157 -2.972 0.003 -0.773 -0.159
numc_nl_latino_population_perc -0.2716 0.456 -0.595 0.552 -1.166 0.623
numc_population_density 1.3995 0.133 10.500 0.000 1.138 1.661
numd_median_household_income -0.6075 0.085 -7.138 0.000 -0.774 -0.441
numc_gas_price 0.7621 0.082 9.300 0.000 0.601 0.923
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -3.8046 0.100 -38.236 0.000 -4.000 -3.610
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 397.989 Durbin-Watson: 1.135
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 819.886
Skew: 0.097 Prob(JB): 9.21e-179
Kurtosis: 3.998 Cond. No. 10.6
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)
All Block Groups
Sample size: 198,456 block groups
OLS Regression Results
=====================================================================================
Dep. Variable: numc_democrat_votes_share R-squared: 0.595
Model: OLS Adj. R-squared: 0.595
Method: Least Squares F-statistic: 5.022e+04
Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2024 Prob (F-statistic): 0.00
Time: 18:43:04 Log-Likelihood: -8.0269e+05
No. Observations: 198456 AIC: 1.605e+06
Df Residuals: 198447 BIC: 1.605e+06
Df Model: 8
Covariance Type: HC3
========================================================================================================
coef std err z P>|z| [0.025 0.975]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const 53.3424 0.031 1720.060 0.000 53.282 53.403
numc_nl_white_population_perc -8.7157 0.229 -38.065 0.000 -9.164 -8.267
numc_nl_black_population_perc 5.5701 0.161 34.581 0.000 5.254 5.886
numc_nl_asian_population_perc -0.6829 0.084 -8.127 0.000 -0.848 -0.518
numc_nl_latino_population_perc -1.9099 0.165 -11.558 0.000 -2.234 -1.586
numc_population_density 3.0523 0.056 54.413 0.000 2.942 3.162
numd_median_household_income 3.3057 0.036 91.746 0.000 3.235 3.376
numc_gas_price 3.7130 0.035 105.523 0.000 3.644 3.782
numc_annual_gasoline_consumption_avg -6.6269 0.038 -175.640 0.000 -6.701 -6.553
==============================================================================
Omnibus: 1299.703 Durbin-Watson: 0.859
Prob(Omnibus): 0.000 Jarque-Bera (JB): 1479.976
Skew: 0.151 Prob(JB): 0.00
Kurtosis: 3.296 Cond. No. 10.2
==============================================================================
Notes:
[1] Standard Errors are heteroscedasticity robust (HC3)